Active funds against the index
Over ten years, the large majority of actively managed funds fall short of their benchmark index. For European world equity funds, the most recent figure was 98 percent.
The most reliable data series on this question are the SPIVA reports from S&P Dow Jones Indices, published for over twenty years, comparing active funds against their benchmark indices.
The result in the European mid-year 2025 report: in the largest category, euro-denominated world equity funds, 98 percent of funds fell short of the index over ten years. For euro-denominated US equity funds, it was 97 percent.
The picture looks similar in the US. Over ten years, roughly 84 percent of large-cap funds there fell short of the S&P 500, about 85 percent for international stocks, and about 87 percent for emerging markets.
The trend over time matters: over six months, the rates are often just above half. The longer the period, the clearer the picture. That's exactly why advertising a single good year carries no informational value.
In the SPIVA Europe mid-year 2025 report, underperformance rates rose considerably over periods beyond six months, reaching 98 percent over ten years for euro-denominated world equity funds, 97 percent for pound-denominated world equity funds, 97 percent for euro-denominated US equity funds, and 94 percent for pound-denominated US equity funds. In the first half of 2025, 61 percent of all equity funds and 59 percent of bond funds in the sample fell short of their respective benchmark.
For the US market, ten-year figures show rates of 84.3 percent for all large-cap funds, 85.3 percent for international stocks outside the US, and 87.4 percent for emerging markets. Notably, even in smaller market segments considered less efficient, 82.2 percent of small-cap funds fell short over ten years.
Survivorship bias needs to be accounted for in this data: funds that get closed or merged disappear from ongoing comparisons. The SPIVA reports state survival rates separately, which means the actual probability of success for an investor who had to pick a fund ten years ago is even less favorable than the raw comparison rate suggests.
Summary
- Over ten years, 98 percent of European world equity funds fell short of the index.
- Short-term rates sit near half, which makes single years worthless as an argument.
- Closed funds disappear from the statistics and flatter them.
Did you get it?
How many euro-denominated world equity funds fell short of their index over ten years?
98 percent, per SPIVA Europe mid-year 2025.
Why does a single good year tell you little?
Because short-term rates sit near half, and the picture only becomes clear over long periods.
What is survivorship bias in this statistic?
Closed or merged funds drop out of the comparison, which makes the active side look better than it was.
Sources and further reading
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, SPIVA Europe Scorecard Mid-Year 2025, spglobal.com View source ↗
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, SPIVA U.S. Scorecard, 10-year evaluation
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