Gurus and signal groups
Anyone who could reliably make money from trading would have no reason to sell courses or signals. This one thought exposes a large part of the market.
The decisive question is: why is someone selling this? Someone with a strategy that reliably works earns more by applying it themselves with a lot of money than by selling it to strangers.
The reason is simple. The profits of a working strategy grow with the money put in. Income from courses grows with the number of customers. Anyone who chooses the second path tells you how they make their money.
Typical signs: screenshots of gains, but no complete record. Expensive cars and trips in the picture. Offers that supposedly only apply today. And results from demo accounts passed off as real ones.
Real proof would be a complete record of all trades over several years, including every loss, that someone independent can check. Practically nobody in this world provides such proof, and that's important information.
The incentives are what matter. If a strategy has a positive expected value, the profit grows with the money used. Selling knowledge, by contrast, grows with the number of customers. And if many people do the same thing, an edge often disappears, because there's only room for a few. So the fact that someone is selling reveals where their money comes from.
With results you're shown, consider who becomes visible in the first place. If there are enough providers, some will be successful for several years by chance alone. They become visible precisely because of that success. You never see the hundreds of others who failed. That's why the success stories you see say nothing about how everyone fares.
Signal groups add one more thing. If many members get the same signal for a thinly traded asset at the same time, their buying drives up the price for everyone who buys later. The provider, who bought beforehand, earns from exactly this move. At its core it's the same process as market manipulation.
Summary
- Profits grow with the money put in, selling courses with the number of customers.
- The success stories you see are a selection. You don't see the ones who failed.
- In signal groups, the shared buying drives up the price for everyone who comes later.
Did you get it?
Why is selling a strategy a warning sign?
Because a working strategy earns more with the money put in, while selling it only grows with the number of customers.
Why do visible success stories tell you little?
Because with many providers, some are successful for several years by chance alone and become visible precisely because of that.
What structural problem do signal groups have?
The shared buying drives up the price for everyone who buys later, and whoever bought beforehand profits.
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