Loss rates on CFDs
Analyses by European regulators found that usually 74 to 89 percent of retail client accounts lose money with CFDs. Since then, this figure has had to appear in every advert.
The figure carries so much weight because it doesn't come from critics. It comes from analyses by national regulators, and the providers have to publish it themselves.
In 2018 the European securities regulator ESMA summarized the national authorities' analyses. Across various EU countries, usually between 74 and 89 percent of retail CFD accounts lost money. On average each client lost between €1,600 and €29,000, depending on the country.
Since then there have been leverage caps for retail clients, protection against losing more than your own money, and the obligation to state in every advert how many of the provider's own retail clients lost money in the past twelve months.
You'll find this statement on every CFD advert. Read it once, deliberately. This statement tells you in advance how many of a provider's customers lose money with the product.
On the websites of large providers in October 2026, for example, XTB showed 77 percent and Plus500 80 percent (German sites), and eToro showed around 50 percent (English site). The figures change constantly, and the pages usually give no time period. So if ten friends start trading CFDs together, five to eight of them lose money, depending on the provider.
The regulator justified stepping in on several grounds: the products were complicated and hard to understand, the leverage on CFDs too high, binary options had a negative expected value by design, and there was a built in conflict of interest between providers and clients. The measures include tiered leverage caps, an obligation to close positions when collateral falls to half of what's required, protection against a negative balance, limits on incentives and the standard warning with the loss rate.
Important for context: the rates count accounts, not people, and they cover twelve months. Over longer periods the share is likely to be higher, because the chance of making a loss at some point grows with time. The stated rate is therefore more of a floor than a ceiling.
Data as text
The price drop that causes a total loss is 100 percent at 1x leverage, 50 percent at 2x, 20 percent at 5x, 10 percent at 10x, 5 percent at 20x, 2 percent at 50x, and 1 percent at 100x.
Summary
- 74 to 89 percent of retail client accounts lose money with CFDs.
- The figure comes from the regulators and from the providers themselves.
- Because only twelve months are looked at, it's more of a floor than a ceiling.
Did you get it?
Where does the 74 to 89 percent range come from?
From national regulators' analyses, summarized by the European securities regulator ESMA.
What measures followed from it?
Leverage caps, an obligation to close when collateral runs short, negative balance protection, limits on incentives and the mandatory loss rate statement.
Why is the rate more of a floor?
Because it only looks at twelve months. Over longer periods the share of accounts with losses rises.
Sources and further reading
- ESMA, press release of 27 March 2018 on product intervention measures for CFDs and binary options, esma.europa.eu View source ↗
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