Profitable trades, losing account
An anonymized breakdown of 39 real perpetual trades from a single private account shows how fees and leverage can drag an account into the red even when direction is mostly right. One account, not a representative sample - which is exactly why it's honest and traceable.
A private account traded perpetuals for a bit over three weeks, almost exclusively on Bitcoin. Direction was right surprisingly often: 64 percent of the 39 trades were winners. Still, less money was on the account at the end than at the start.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Trades | 39 |
| Win rate | 64% |
| Result before fees | +89 USDT |
| Fees | −141 USDT |
| Result after fees | −52 USDT |
Two out of three trades were winners. Yet there's less money at the end than before. Three causes explain the difference.
Fees were bigger than the profit. 32 of the 39 trades ran at the higher taker rate, mostly via market orders. Profit targets were often a few tenths of a percent of price movement, and fees took a big chunk of that every single time. Three trades were profitable before fees and lost money after. → Maker, taker, and funding
Four liquidations. Four positions were force-closed. Together they cost about 171 USDT - more than the entire net loss. They triggered on countermoves of just 0.1 to 0.9 percent, which points to very high leverage. Bitcoin often swings more than that within a single hour. → Liquidation · Leverage
Small wins, big losses. The average winning trade brought in 5.79 USDT; the average losing trade cost 14.03 USDT. A loss weighed about as much as two and a half wins. At that ratio, a 64 percent win rate isn't enough. → Win rate and expected value
The profit factor - the sum of wins divided by the sum of losses - came out at 0.74. Values under 1 mean a strategy loses money on average, regardless of win rate. That's exactly what this account shows: a 64 percent win rate sounds good, but says nothing about whether money is left at the end if the ratio between average win and average loss doesn't hold up.
On a single day there were 8 trades, 2 liquidations, and −68 USDT - more than half of the entire net loss on one day. That's the classic pattern: after losses, trading gets faster and bigger instead of the position size getting smaller. → Overtrading and revenge trading
After a one-week break, position sizes dropped noticeably. Over the following nearly two weeks there were 20 trades, no liquidation, and no losing day. That second phase's result came in at around +105 USDT. One important caveat: during this phase Bitcoin's price was falling and trading was mostly short - some of the success came from the market itself, not just the changed habits. What transfers is the smaller position size and the discipline after losses, not the trading direction.
Summary
- A 64 percent win rate wasn't enough: fees, four liquidations, and an unfavorable win/loss ratio still dragged the account into the red.
- Fees belong in every calculation, not in the fine print.
- A single mistake - here: high leverage followed by liquidations - can wipe out dozens of small wins.
- Smaller positions and fixed rules made an immediate difference in this account's second phase.
Did you get it?
Can you lose money with over 60 percent win rate?
Yes, if losses are significantly bigger than wins or fees eat up the edge.
What is a profit factor?
The sum of all wins divided by the sum of all losses. Values under 1 mean a loss.
Sources and further reading
- The numbers come from the anonymized trading log of a single private account. One account is not a representative sample; the numbers illustrate a mechanism, not a universal success rate.
Related
- Maker, taker, and fundingStage 1
- Win rate and expected valueStage 2
- What percentage of day traders make money long-termReality check